Bank of America Research Lifts Brent Forecast to $92.50 on 4 mb/d Deficit
Bank of America Global Research forecasts a 4 mb/d oil supply deficit in Q2 2026 after Strait of Hormuz flows fall from 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d, lifting its Brent average price estimate to $92.50 per barrel. Analysts warn prolonged disruptions could heighten market volatility and boost trading revenue.
1. Supply Collapse and Deficit
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged from roughly 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d, prompting a projected 4 mb/d global oil supply deficit in Q2 2026 as export capacities falter.
2. Revised Brent Price Forecast
In response to tightening fundamentals and emergency stock releases, Bank of America has raised its 2026 Brent crude average forecast to $92.50 per barrel, reflecting intensified market stress.
3. Trading and Advisory Implications
Higher price projections and increased price volatility are expected to drive greater trading volumes and revenue opportunities for Bank of America’s markets and advisory divisions.
4. Volatility and Demand Rationing Risks
A prolonged supply disruption could force energy demand rationing, trigger extreme price swings and elevate risk exposures across global financial markets, impacting BofA’s risk management strategies.