Bank of Canada to raise rates to 2.50% on October 28 and once again by end-March
TLT•A Reuters poll found that 19 of 34 economists expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28. A 55% majority of respondents also forecast one more increase by March 2027, to 2.75%.
1. Economists expect rate hike
Nineteen of 34 economists surveyed October 21-23 expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.50% on October 28. It would be the bank’s first rate move in a year.
2. One more increase forecast
Sixteen of 29 respondents expect another hike before March 2027, after which policymakers would hold the rate at 2.75%. The previous poll had found that 80% expected the rate to remain at 2.25% through the end of 2026.
3. Inflation and growth outlook
The poll’s median forecasts put inflation at 2.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.3% in the current quarter, following 1.9% growth last quarter, before accelerating next year.
