Barrick’s third-quarter gold sales fell 13% year-over-year, driven primarily by output shortfalls at the North Mara and Kibali mines. Total gold sold reached 780,000 ounces, down from 900,000 ounces in the same period last year. Maintenance issues at Pueblo Viejo and a prolonged wet season in Alaska further weighed on production. As a result, the company now projects 2025 gold output of 4.5–5.0 million ounces versus prior guidance of 5.0–5.3 million ounces, highlighting the need for operational improvements before year-end.

With all-in sustaining costs remaining relatively flat at $1,050 per ounce for gold and $1.40 per pound for copper, higher commodity prices should deliver significant margin expansion. A 10% rise in gold prices would boost annual free cash flow by approximately $1.2 billion, while each $0.10 increase in copper price adds roughly $150 million. Consensus forecasts expect the company’s trailing EBITDA to grow from $5.8 billion in 2023 to $7.2 billion by 2027, compressing the forward P/E multiple from 21x to around 12.6x over the same period.

Following resolution of its Mali dispute, Barrick has restored 15% of attributable production and de-risked cash flow. The high-grade Fourmile discovery in Nevada could contribute an incremental 20% to annual gold output late this decade once fully developed. Management is evaluating an IPO of its Nevada, Fourmile and Pueblo Viejo assets, which analysts estimate could fetch a valuation uplift of 25%–30% relative to the core business. This strategic move aims to simplify the corporate structure and attract dedicated precious-metals and base-metals investors.