BAT predicts fast growth in smoking alternatives for the next decade
BTI•British American Tobacco expects revenue from smoking alternatives to grow at a mid-teens percentage rate annually through 2030 and their contribution margin to reach at least 30%, up from 13.3% in June 2026. It remains on track for the lower end of its 2026 revenue and adjusted operating profit growth guidance.
1. Alternatives growth outlook
British American Tobacco expects revenue growth from smoking alternatives, including vapes and nicotine pouches, to remain in the mid-teens percentage range each year through 2030. The company had previously forecast mid-teens growth for 2026.
2. Profitability and guidance
BAT expects the products’ contribution margin to reach at least 30% by 2030, compared with 13.3% in June 2026. It also said it remains on track to deliver growth at the lower end of its 2026 guidance: 3% to 5% for revenue and 4% to 6% for adjusted profit from operations.
3. Nicotine portfolio
BAT is seeking to grow revenue from non-cigarette nicotine products as smoking declines over the long term in some key markets. Its rising ambitions reflect growth in its Velo nicotine pouch label after difficulties with its vape and heated tobacco brands.
