BAT predicts fast growth in smoking alternatives for the next decade
BTI•British American Tobacco expects revenue from smoking alternatives to grow at a mid-teens annual rate through 2030, driven by nicotine pouches. It expects pouch industry revenue to triple and the alternatives’ contribution margin to reach at least 30% by 2030, from 13.3% in June 2026.
1. Alternatives drive growth plans
BAT said it expects annual revenue from smoking alternatives to grow at a mid-teens rate through 2030, with nicotine pouches its main growth driver. The company expects nicotine pouch industry revenue to triple, while overall nicotine industry revenue is forecast to grow 4% from 2025 to 2030.
2. Targets and outlook
BAT expects the contribution margin from smoking alternatives to reach at least 30% by 2030, compared with 13.3% in June 2026. It expects global tobacco industry volumes to decline 2.5% between 2025 and 2030 and plans to focus cigarette investments on 20 markets that account for 80% of industry revenue.
3. 2026 guidance
BAT said it remains on track to deliver at the lower end of its 2026 guidance: revenue growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted profit from operations growth of 4% to 6%. The company also plans to integrate AI into product development, marketing and manufacturing.
