Benchmark Treasury yield breaks to new highs, but the move is looking stretched
TLT•The 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.44%, its highest level since 2004, while the 10-year yield reached 5.1497%, its highest since 2007, before easing to around 5.11%. Technical indicators suggest the advance may be becoming harder to sustain, though they do not guarantee a pullback.
1. Yields reach new highs
The 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.44% on Thursday, its highest level since 2004. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 5.1497%, its highest level since 2007, before easing to around 5.11%.
2. Technical signals flash caution
The 10-year yield moved above its upper yearly Bollinger Band, near 5.11%, and tested resistance at the 1993 low of 5.1514%. The 9-year RSI reached its highest reading since 1983, while weekly and monthly RSI readings were at their most overbought levels since October 2023. The article says these signals do not guarantee a pullback, but suggest the advance may be becoming harder to sustain.
3. Key levels ahead
Initial support is in the 5.04%-5.02% zone, while a break below 4.92% would strengthen the case for a deeper retreat. If 5.1514% gives way, the next upside targets are near 5.33%, 5.65% and 6.24%.
