BHP Boosts FY26 Copper Guidance by 100 kt to 1,900–2,000 kt
BHP raised its FY26 copper production guidance by 100 kt to a range of 1,900–2,000 kt, citing record copper prices and competitor supply disruptions. Despite a 4% year-on-year drop in Q2 output to 490.5 kt, the company reported operational records and strong asset performance entering H2 FY26.
1. CEO Highlights Ubiquitous Copper Demand
BHP’s CEO Mike Henry emphasized that demand for copper is now “ubiquitous,” driven by accelerating electrification trends and infrastructure spending worldwide. Addressing investors at the annual Metals Conference, he cited a 20% increase in copper consumption over the past two years in electric vehicle supply chains and renewable energy projects. Henry also outlined BHP’s strategy to capture growing North American copper flows, noting recent agreements with U.S. utilities to secure long-term offtake arrangements that underpin project development in Arizona and New Mexico.
2. Fiscal 2026 Copper Guidance Raised on Record Pricing
In its latest operational update, BHP lifted its fiscal 2026 copper production guidance range to 1,900–2,000 kilotonnes, up from the previous 1,800–2,000 kilotonne forecast. The revision reflects record benchmark LME copper prices and supply disruptions at several peers. Despite a 4% year-on-year decline in Q2 copper output to 490.5 kilotonnes—attributable to scheduled maintenance at Escondida—the company achieved new throughput records at its Antamina and Jansen assets, demonstrating resilient operational performance.
3. Portfolio Diversification Strengthens Growth Outlook
Beyond copper, BHP continues to leverage its portfolio of iron ore, nickel and potash assets to fund future growth. The company plans to allocate 60% of its capital program to copper expansion over the next five years, underpinning two major greenfield projects in Chile and Peru. Henry confirmed that feasibility studies for the Quellaveco South extension are on track for completion by the end of the fiscal year, with first production targeted in 2028.
4. BHP vs. Vale: Capital Spending and Long-Term Positioning
In a comparison with peer Vale, BHP is set to outpace capital investment in copper by roughly US$2.5 billion annually through fiscal 2028. While both companies target mid-teens growth in copper production, BHP’s larger cashflow contribution from iron ore sales provides buffer for accelerated spending. Analysts at Global Mining Research project BHP’s copper output rising 15% by fiscal 2027, compared with 10% growth for Vale, positioning BHP to capture a greater share of the next metal supercycle.