BHP Maintains Diversified Model, Lifts Copper Guidance 150,000 Tons and Forecasts $60 Billion Cash Flow
Mike Henry confirmed that BHP maintains its diversified portfolio while boosting copper output, lifting guidance by 150,000 tons over two years and targeting 2.5 million tons annually by 2035. Copper now accounts for over half of EBITDA and BHP projects $60 billion in free cash flow over the next five years.
1. Diversified Business Model
CEO Mike Henry reaffirmed that BHP will remain a diversified miner rather than a copper pure play, emphasizing balanced exposure across commodities even as copper output rises.
2. Copper Production Growth and Guidance
Copper now contributes more than 50% of underlying EBITDA following a 30% production increase, and BHP has raised copper output guidance by 150,000 tons over the next two years, targeting around 2.5 million tons annually by 2035.
3. Vicuña Joint Venture Expansion
The Vicuña joint venture in Argentina with Lundin saw contained copper resources increase to 47 million tons after recent drilling, with a potential Stage 1 final investment decision by year-end and average output of 500,000 tons of copper and 800,000 ounces of gold per year over its first decade.
4. Financial Outlook and Capital Allocation
BHP forecasts approximately $60 billion in free cash flow over the next five years at spot prices—and at least $10 billion under low-price scenarios—while maintaining a base dividend payout of 50% and having returned over $110 billion to shareholders in the past decade.