Blue Origin’s 5,408-Satellite TeraWave Unveiling Sends AST SpaceMobile Down 13.4%

ASTSASTS

AST SpaceMobile shares plunged 13.4% after Blue Origin unveiled its 5,408-satellite TeraWave network launching in late 2027, intensifying competition in space-based broadband. Meanwhile, ASTS reported $14.7 M Q3 revenue, guided $35 M–$50 M for Q4, secured the MDA SHIELD contract and received a UBS $137 price target.

1. Competitive Pressure Rises with Blue Origin’s TeraWave Announcement

AST SpaceMobile shares declined sharply after Blue Origin unveiled its TeraWave network—a 5,408-satellite constellation capable of 6 Tbps throughput slated for deployment beginning in late 2027. Investors marked down AST SpaceMobile by more than 13 percent in intra-day trading, reflecting concerns that the deep-pocketed newcomer could challenge AST’s position in the nascent space-based broadband market. While Blue Origin won’t start launches for over two years, the move underscores intensifying competition alongside incumbents like Starlink and EchoStar.

2. Solid Revenue Trajectory and Valuation Spotlight

AST SpaceMobile reported third-quarter revenue of $14.7 million and expects to generate between $35 million and $50 million in the fourth quarter, supporting a revenue target of nearly $200 million in 2026—roughly triple last year’s total. Despite this growth outlook, the company trades at an enterprise-value-to-sales ratio near 200, reflecting sky-high investor expectations and explaining the recent volatility. Market capitalization stands near $35 billion, while average daily trading volumes have surged above 30 million shares as the firm ramps up satellite deployment.

3. Strategic Defense Win Bolsters Long-Term Prospects

In a significant defense contract, AST SpaceMobile secured a deal with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under the SHIELD Program, part of the Golden Dome initiative to strengthen national command-and-control capabilities. This award positions AST to deliver secure low-Earth-orbit communications for missile defense applications and could pave the way for future government partnerships. Analysts from UBS have taken note, assigning an 18 percent upside to the stock based on the combined civilian and defense revenue streams.

Sources

FFM