Brazil election to reshape trade with US, with tariffs and minerals at stake
EWZ•Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff could shape trade negotiations with the US, including tariffs and access to critical minerals and rare earths. Flavio Bolsonaro won 47% of the first-round vote, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 45%.
1. Trade at stake
Brazil’s next president will navigate relations with China and the US, its two largest trading partners, while shaping policies on mineral development, industrialization and regional cooperation. Brazil and the US established a working group last month to negotiate tariffs and a broader trade framework, with US access to Brazilian critical minerals and rare earths a key point of contention.
2. Different approaches
Lula has emphasized Brazil’s sovereignty, multilateralism and closer ties with the Global South, including the BRICS bloc. Experts said his negotiations with Washington have had mixed progress, and a Congress dominated by right-wing parties could pressure him to change course and make concessions on natural resources.
3. Bolsonaro’s potential path
Flavio Bolsonaro has a friendly relationship with the Trump administration, and experts said his presidency could bring foreign policy more aligned with the US. That relationship could create a more favorable negotiating environment, but experts said he could face pressure over concessions on strategic minerals and Brazil’s autonomy. Bolsonaro and Trump have also aligned on combating organized crime, while Lula has rejected the proposal to designate Brazilian criminal factions as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
