Carney’s pipeline push is unlikely to bring back Canada’s oil jobs boom
SU•A proposed pipeline carrying 1 million barrels of crude a day to Canada’s Pacific coast could boost oil output and exports, but industry forecasts suggest it may not bring many permanent jobs. Oil sands employment is projected to fall 4%, or 920 jobs, by 2035 even as production grows 6%.
1. Output without a jobs boom
The pipeline backed by Prime Minister Mark Carney would transport 1 million barrels of crude oil a day to a Pacific port, expanding export capacity to Asia. Experts and industry forecasts suggest that rising oil sands output would rely more on automation and efficiency gains than large-scale hiring. Carney said he would describe the outlook as “sustained growth,” not a boom.
2. Employment outlook
An August forecast by Energy Safety Canada projects oil sands employment will fall by 920 jobs, or 4%, by 2035, while production grows 6%. The group said a West Coast pipeline could reverse the job decline but may add few permanent positions because producers are generating more oil with fewer workers. Oil Sands Alliance head Kendall Dilling said related projects could create thousands of jobs across Canada by the mid-2030s, many of them temporary construction jobs.
3. Investment and political risks
No oil sands company has committed the C$100 billion in private investment needed to fill the proposed pipeline and build the carbon capture and storage project Carney has made a condition of federal approval. Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said producers favored shareholder returns over expansion spending, despite higher oil prices and more stable revenue. Carney’s pipeline support has drawn criticism from both environmental advocates and those who expect faster economic growth and more oil jobs.
