Carvana May Swing $50 on Q4 Results with $5.23B Revenue Forecast
Analysts forecast Carvana to report Q4 revenue of $5.23 billion and EPS of $1.12, reflecting about 47% top-line growth year-over-year. Experts warn the stock could swing ±14.2% (roughly a $50 move) after results, and major banks have raised price targets to between $510 and $535.
1. Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Carvana to report fourth-quarter revenue of $5.23 billion and earnings per share of $1.12, up from $3.55 billion and $0.56 EPS in the year-ago quarter. The company has beaten revenue estimates in seven straight quarters and EPS estimates in eight of the last ten.
2. Volatility Outlook
Market strategists highlight that Carvana shares historically move an average of ±14.2% after earnings, which equates to roughly a $50 swing at current levels. Technical analysis suggests a double-top formation, with support around $280 to $300 if the pattern breaks.
3. Analyst Price Target Adjustments
JPMorgan raised its price target from $490 to $510 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Wells Fargo lifted its target to $525, Barclays to $530, and BTIG to $535, all continuing Buy or Overweight recommendations.
4. Operational Developments and Risks
Carvana has expanded same-day vehicle delivery to over 20 states, including recent rollout in Oregon’s Eugene metro. Shares are under pressure from a short report alleging overstated profits, countered by the company’s denial of inaccuracies.