Celestica Shares Drop 6% on Rumors as Upgrades Forecast 31% Growth
Analysts upgraded Celestica to bullish and buy ratings ahead of Q4, anticipating 27% revenue growth in CY25 and 31% in CY26 driven by AI networking and hyperscaler capex. CLS shares slid over 6% recently after Alphabet TPU server rumors, though management has reaffirmed program continuity.
1. Bullish Upgrade Driven by AI Networking and Hyperscaler Capex
Celestica was upgraded to a bullish rating ahead of its Q4 CY25 earnings report, reflecting accelerating demand for AI networking hardware and continued strength in hyperscaler capital expenditures. Recent surveys of major cloud customers indicate a 40% increase in high-bandwidth switch orders year-over-year, and Celestica’s manufacturing capacity utilization reached 92% in Q3. Management has highlighted multi-year build plans with two hyperscale clients, collectively representing over $1.2 billion in expected revenue through 2026.
2. Robust Revenue Growth and Consistent Guidance Raises
Analysts forecast Celestica will achieve 27% revenue growth in calendar 2025 and 31% in 2026, driven by both new AI networking programs and expansion of existing server chassis contracts. The company has beaten guidance in each of the past four quarters, with consensus estimates rising by an average of 8% per quarter as management reiterated confidence in order backlogs exceeding $3 billion. Gross margins expanded to 11.5% in the latest quarter, up from 9.8% a year earlier, reflecting higher-value system integration work.
3. Strategic Platform Transition and Emerging Market Opportunities
Celestica is shifting from a traditional electronics manufacturing services provider to a strategic technology platform partner. The recent launch of its DS6000/DS6001 high-density Ethernet switches positions the company in a segment expected to grow at a 24% CAGR through 2028. In parallel, Celestica is leveraging its expertise to enter the $21 billion global data center cooling market, having secured initial contracts with three leading cloud operators. While customer concentration remains a risk—with the top three clients accounting for approximately 55% of total revenue—the diversification into adjacent infrastructure platforms is seen as a key mitigant.