Four sources close to ongoing negotiations report that Chevron has formally requested the U.S. government to broaden its existing Venezuela license. The oil major aims to boost exports from its Venezuelan operations—currently averaging 240,000 barrels per day—to its U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and to third-party buyers. Chevron has held a limited exemption under U.S. sanctions since 2020, but the company argues that expanded permissions would allow it to ramp up production in its five joint-venture projects with Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), many of which are operating below 50% capacity due to diluent shortages and deferred maintenance. The talks, which began in late 2025, could pave the way for an immediate 30% production increase if approved by mid-year.

Berkshire Hathaway remains Chevron’s largest corporate backer, holding roughly a 6% position valued at approximately $19 billion based on late-2025 valuations. Warren Buffett’s successor, Greg Abel, has indicated that Chevron’s ability to continue operating in Venezuela gives it a unique strategic edge compared with peers that exited the market years ago. On an August earnings call, CEO Mike Wirth underscored that Chevron’s century-long presence in Venezuela provides the personnel, licenses and infrastructure ‘ready to ramp up immediately’ upon any regulatory relief—an advantage analysts say could translate into incremental free cash flow of $2–3 billion in the first 12 months of license expansion.

Chevron delivered annual dividend hikes of 6.97% in 2022, 6.34% in 2023 and 7.95% in 2024, fueled by upstream cash flows of $49.6 billion and $35.6 billion in those years. In Q3 2025, the company averaged 3.61 million barrels per day of production across the Permian Basin, Tengizchevroil, and Gulf of Mexico, representing an 8% year-over-year increase. Capital discipline remains central: Chevron allocated more than 87% of its 2024–2025 CAPEX to upstream development, prioritizing Guyana and the Permian to sustain low breakeven costs near $30 per barrel. Management projects modest 5% annual dividend growth through 2030, reflecting oil price forecasts of $55–60 per barrel in 2026 and recovery toward $75 by decade-end.

According to Financial Times sources, Chevron has partnered with Quantum Energy Partners to prepare a $22 billion offer for Lukoil’s international oil and gas portfolio, encompassing upstream fields, refining units and over 2,000 retail outlets across Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The U.S. Treasury granted a negotiation window through January 17 under sanctions relief guidelines. If successful, the acquisition would add roughly 350,000 barrels per day of production and nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of refining throughput to Chevron’s integrated network, while expanding its global marketing footprint.