China Large-Cap ETF Down 23.3%, Historical Dips Yield Median +5% Return
FXI•iShares China Large-Cap ETF is trading 23.3% below its 52-week high after 13 past declines of 20% or more. Seven of those dips posted positive 12-month returns (median +5%) but buyers faced a typical further 12% drop and outcomes ranged from −32% to +45%.
1. Current Dip Position
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF sits 23.3% below its 52-week high following similar declines in April 2024 and December 2023, forcing investors to weigh the appeal of buying at lower levels against potential further losses.
2. Past Dip Outcomes
Since 2005 the fund has experienced 13 declines of 20% or more, with seven of these instances delivering positive returns over the subsequent 12 months, indicating a slight historical edge for dip buyers.
3. Median Recovery and Drawdown
Among the dips that rebounded, the median one-year return was +5% and the median peak gain was +16%, typically reached in about 182 days, although investors usually endured an additional 12% drawdown before realizing gains.
4. Concentration Risk
The fund’s top five holdings account for 36% of assets and the top ten for 55%, concentrating exposure in Chinese mega-caps such as Tencent, China Construction Bank and ICBC, which amplifies volatility and recovery dependency.
