Citi Sees Brent Crude Hitting $120 This Month, $150 Bull-Case on Hormuz Risk
Citi forecasts Brent crude will rally to at least $120 per barrel by month-end, with a bull-case peak of $150 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Prolonged threats to 20% of supply have pushed Brent from $72 to $101 per barrel.
1. Citi’s Revised Oil Price Outlook
Citi strategists now expect Brent crude to reach at least $120 per barrel by month-end, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, and outline a bull-case scenario of $150 if disruptions to critical choke points persist into mid-year.
2. Strait of Hormuz Supply Threat
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, has become the primary risk factor underpinning Citi’s higher price targets after recent pipeline and infrastructure damage elevated the war premium.
3. Market Impact and USO Implications
Brent crude has surged from $72 to $101 per barrel since late February, intensifying volatility. USO, as an oil-price-tracking fund, stands to gain from sustained price rallies but remains exposed to rapid pullbacks if supply routes reopen or diplomatic progress reduces risk.