Coinbase Faces 22% Odds to Beat $0.61 EPS as Crypto Volumes Collapse
Polymarket assigns Coinbase a 22% chance of exceeding $0.61 GAAP EPS today, reflecting a near 50% Bitcoin decline since October and 33% Ethereum drop. Analysts forecast Q4 revenue of $1.84 billion (down from $2.27 billion) and $1.03 billion in transaction revenue (-33.6% YoY) as shares fall 37% YTD.
1. Polymarket Traders Price in Low EPS Beat Odds
Polymarket contracts show a 22% probability that Coinbase will exceed $0.61 GAAP EPS today, with over $50,000 in trading volume. Skepticism stems from a near 50% slump in Bitcoin since October, along with a 33% drop in Ethereum and 25% decline in XRP.
2. Q4 Revenue and Transaction Fee Outlook
Analysts forecast Q4 revenue of $1.84 billion, down from $2.27 billion a year earlier. Transaction revenue is projected at $1.03 billion, a 33.6% year-over-year decline, highlighting the impact of reduced trading volumes on Coinbase’s core fee business.
3. Share Performance and Margin Pressure
Coinbase shares have fallen 37% year-to-date and trade at a P/E ratio of around 26, leaving little room for disappointment. Management is expected to emphasize 9% quarter-over-quarter growth in subscription and services revenue while addressing regulatory clarity, stablecoin growth and Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.