Delta Air Lines Stock Down 15% YTD as Rising Oil Costs Threaten $6.50-$7.50 EPS Range
Delta Air Lines stock is down 15% YTD to $59.01 after guiding FY2026 EPS of $6.50-$7.50 based on 2025’s average fuel cost near $2.25/gal. With WTI crude up 10.3% in a month to $71.13 and at risk of reaching $100/bbl, Delta’s earnings forecasts would evaporate and shares could drop further.
1. FY2026 EPS Guidance and Fuel Assumptions
Delta Air Lines’ FY2026 EPS outlook of $6.50 to $7.50 per share is built on an average fuel price of roughly $2.25 per gallon recorded in 2025, with management highlighting fuel cost stability as a key driver of its profit projections.
2. Year-to-Date Stock Performance
Delta’s shares have fallen nearly 15% year-to-date, sliding from about $69.22 at the start of 2026 to $59.01, as investors grow wary of cost pressures and the potential for earnings erosion.
3. Rising Oil Prices and Earnings Risk
WTI crude oil has climbed 10.3% in the past month to $71.13 per barrel and risks hitting $100, a level that would invalidate Delta’s fuel cost assumptions and could trigger another 20% share decline.
4. Refinery Hedge and Analyst Outlook
Delta’s ownership of the Monroe Energy refinery provides a partial hedge against fuel price swings, and 25 out of 26 analysts maintain buy ratings with an average price target of $81.81, contingent on sustained low fuel costs.