DraftKings Hits Record Q3 Hold, Margin and User Growth; $44 Target Implies 20% Upside

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DraftKings hit record Q3 2025 hold percentage, net revenue margin, parlay mix and user base, trading at about 30x EBITDA and 2.6x sales. Analysts see a $44 price target implying over 20% upside and view prediction markets as a complementary growth driver.

1. Needham Analyst Sees Prediction Markets as Growth Catalyst

Bernie McTernan, senior gaming analyst at Needham, highlighted that DraftKings’ recent foray into prediction markets could add a new revenue stream without cannibalizing its core sportsbook business. He noted that the company’s proprietary platform handled over 3 million unique prediction events in Q4 2025, representing 15% quarter-over-quarter growth. McTernan projects that prediction markets could contribute 5–7% of total net revenue by the end of 2026, driven by a low customer acquisition cost and higher take rates compared with traditional single-event wagers.

2. Robust Q3 Metrics Underscore Business Momentum

In an analysis published on Seeking Alpha, a senior prop-trading analyst reaffirmed DraftKings as a Strong Buy, citing all-time highs in key operational metrics during Q3 2025. Hold percentage reached 12.8%, net revenue margin expanded to 24.3%, the mix of parlay bets climbed to 18.2% of total handle, and active user count surpassed 6.4 million. The analyst pointed to a valuation at approximately 30 times EBITDA and 2.6 times sales, which, combined with anticipated margin expansion, supports more than 20% annualized return potential over the next two years.

3. BofA Sees Online Sports Betting Driving 2026 Outlook

Bank of America Securities’ Shaun C. Kelley emphasized that online sports betting will remain the primary growth lever for gaming stocks into 2026, even as trends in Las Vegas and regional casinos show softness. For DraftKings specifically, Kelley forecasts mid-teens percentage growth in monthly average revenue per user (MARPU) next year, underpinned by geographic expansion into two additional states and further investment in live in-game wagering technology. He noted that the company’s share of total U.S. online wagering handle grew to 34% at year-end 2025, up from 28% a year earlier.

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