EV Surge Could Cut Oil Demand by 0.32mbpd; CTAs Sell Crude Aggressively

CL•2026-06-22

Goldman Sachs forecasts accelerating EV adoption trimming oil demand by up to 0.32mbpd by December 2027, with global penetration at 26.1% and China up 11.4 percentage points. UBS warns CTAs’ heavy energy contract selling renders crude the most vulnerable commodity as volatility eases.

1. Goldman Sachs’ EV Demand Risk

Goldman Sachs estimates accelerating EV adoption has lifted global penetration to 26.1%, up 3.4 percentage points since February, with China leading at an 11.4 point rise. It models a temporary scenario holding May 2026 levels cutting demand by 0.13mbpd by December 2027 and a persistent scenario slicing 0.32mbpd.

2. UBS Warns of Energy Contract Selling

UBS notes that trend-following CTAs have sold aggressively across energy contracts, marking commodities as the most vulnerable cohort as volatility declines. It highlights that systematic funds remain sensitive to downside risks while easing volatility and trend re-leverage support carry trades in other markets.