Expedia Shares Plunge 27% Month-to-Date While Q4 Bookings Hit $27B
Expedia’s shares have fallen about 27% month-to-date on AI disruption fears, marking their worst monthly drop since 2010 as generative AI platforms threaten traditional online travel agency take rates. In Q4, Expedia posted $27.0 billion in gross bookings, $3.5 billion in revenue and $848 million in adjusted EBITDA alongside 9% room-night growth, and analysts maintain buy ratings with a $306 price target implying roughly 48% upside.
1. Stock Sell-Off and AI Concerns
Expedia’s stock has tumbled roughly 27% in February, its steepest monthly decline since April 2010, as investors fear generative AI tools could bypass traditional online travel agencies and erode commission take rates.
2. Strong Fourth-Quarter Metrics
In the fourth quarter, Expedia delivered $27.0 billion in gross bookings, $3.5 billion in revenue and $848 million in adjusted EBITDA, driven by 9% year-over-year room-night growth and market share gains at Vrbo and Hotels.com.
3. Strategic AI Investments
While executives acknowledge AI may disrupt traffic funnels, Expedia is accelerating its own AI initiatives, customer service automation and loyalty programs to defend market share and optimize marketing costs.
4. Valuation Upside and Risks
Analysts retain buy ratings and have lifted the price target to $306, implying about 48% upside, though the stock remains vulnerable to prolonged margin pressure if AI platforms capture more direct bookings.