ExxonMobil Sees Brent Crude at $92.50 on 4 mb/d Supply Deficit
ExxonMobil benefits from collapsing Strait of Hormuz throughput, as shipments slump from 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d, prompting BofA to forecast Brent at $92.50 per barrel and a 4 mb/d second-quarter supply deficit. The stock climbed over 11% in March on surging crude prices and potential Venezuela return.
1. Strait of Hormuz Shipment Collapse
The conflict in the Middle East has choked the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and product flows to plunge from about 20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d and straining global supply lines.
2. BofA Revises Market Forecasts
BofA Global Research now projects a 4 mb/d supply deficit in Q2 2026 and has raised its Brent average price forecast for 2026 to $92.50 per barrel.
3. ExxonMobil Stock Momentum
ExxonMobil shares rallied over 11% in March as crude prices surged on supply concerns, and the company is evaluating a return to Venezuela to boost production capacity.
4. Risk of Demand Rationing
Analysts warn that continued disruptions could force a 4%–5% contraction in global energy demand to rebalance markets, raising worries about stagflationary pressure on growth.