Eli Lilly is poised to report a substantial increase in fourth-quarter top-line figures, largely powered by Mounjaro and Zepbound. In the third quarter, combined sales of these two GLP-1 products reached $10.1 billion, accounting for more than 57% of the company’s total revenues of $17.6 billion. For Q4, management guidance indicates that continued scale-up of manufacturing capacity—domestically and in Europe—will support year-over-year growth north of 50%, despite modest unit price concessions agreed in recent supply contracts.

Although new supply agreements include price reductions averaging 3% in key markets, Eli Lilly expects to more than offset this through a 40% increase in global patient starts for Mounjaro and a 35% rise for Zepbound in Q4. The rollout into 15 additional international markets—most recently Australia and South Korea—should contribute an estimated $1.2 billion in incremental sales. Reimbursement expansions with four major European payors, covering over 100 million lives, are anticipated to drive third-party coverage from 65% to 80% by year-end.

Looking beyond Q4, investors are watching Eli Lilly’s late-stage pipeline, notably the phase 3 data for retatrutide. In a 68-week trial, the triple-hormone candidate delivered an average 28.7% body weight reduction, surpassing the 26.6% achieved by tirzepatide under intensive lifestyle intervention. Remarkably, over 12% of participants with knee osteoarthritis reported complete pain relief. The company has scheduled a New Drug Application submission for retatrutide in mid-2026, which, if approved, could add a new indication and accelerate adoption, further bolstering revenue growth in 2027.