First Solar’s Target Slashed to $230 as 2026 Shipments Cut to 17.6 GW
Morgan Stanley cut First Solar’s 2026 price target to $230 from $275, lowered its shipment forecast to 17.6 GW (from 19.7 GW) and average selling price estimate to $0.287/W (from $0.315/W) due to slower margin recovery and softer pricing. First Solar reported Q4 sales of $1.7B, closing 2025 with $2.4B cash.
1. Morgan Stanley Lowers Price Target and Forecasts
Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating but reduced its 2026 price target to $230 from $275, citing slower margin recovery and softer module pricing. The firm lowered its shipment forecast to 17.6 GW from 19.7 GW and trimmed its average selling price estimate to $0.287/W from $0.315/W.
2. Q4 and Full-Year Financial Results
First Solar posted fourth-quarter net sales of $1.7 billion and full-year net sales of $5.2 billion, up from $4.2 billion in 2024. Diluted EPS were $4.84 for the quarter and $14.21 for the full year, driven by higher module volume sales.
3. Strengthened Cash Position
The company ended 2025 with $2.4 billion in net cash, up from $1.5 billion at the end of the prior quarter, boosted by Section 45X tax credit sales and operating cash flow, partly offset by capital spending on its Louisiana facility.
4. 2026 Financial Guidance
Management guided for net sales of $4.9–$5.2 billion, module volumes of 17.0–18.2 GW and adjusted EBITDA of $2.6–$2.8 billion, reflecting the impact of slower pricing recovery and evolving market dynamics.