First Watch Sees 20% Revenue Gain and Lowers Price Target to $19
First Watch delivered a 20% revenue gain and $0.24 EPS, while Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating but cut its price target from $22 to $19. The company forecast 2026 revenue growth of 12–14%, same-store sales up 1–3% and 9% store count expansion, prompting a 13% share drop.
1. Earnings Beat and Revenue Growth
First Watch reported a 20% increase in fourth-quarter revenue and delivered earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding analyst estimates. The strong top-line performance was driven by robust customer traffic and menu optimization efforts.
2. 2026 Guidance Details
Management projected 2026 revenue growth of 12%–14%, same-store sales growth of 1%–3% and store count expansion of 9%. The outlook reflects a deliberate pacing of new openings and caution over macroeconomic headwinds.
3. Piper Sandler Rating and Price Target Adjustment
Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on First Watch but reduced the price target from $22 to $19, signaling tempered upside expectations despite the beat. The revision reflects concerns over the projected slowdown in growth metrics.
4. Market Reaction and Stock Metrics
Shares tumbled 13% on the day of the earnings release, settling near $12.32 and fluctuating between $12.18 and $14.48. The stock’s market capitalization stands at approximately $752 million with daily trading volume around 10.23 million shares.