"They're going to have to choose," said Christopher Appel, director of banking policy at Better Markets, referring to officials at the Fed where he worked from 2019 through March. Appel was one of many Fed officials who left the central bank this year as the administration overhauls federal agencies.
He said he believes the surcharge is a key remaining safeguard as regulators trim overall capital levels, and that the proposed revision will better gauge funding risks.
"It's absolutely critical that the Fed get this right."
Spokespeople for the Fed, JPMorgan, Goldman and Morgan Stanley declined to comment. BofA supports changes "that drive Main Street lending, job creation, and affordability," a spokesperson said.
To be sure, the banks support the Fed's capital overhaul, but see a rare opportunity to maximize their gains, the people said.
JPMorgan and BofA executives have been lobbying Fed officials, sometimes in joint meetings, to spike the proposed change, according to the people. The banks' chief argument is that the new formula could crimp their lending and potentially hurt the economy, while boosting riskier trading activity, according to the people and public comments.
"As proposed, the Federal Reserve would incentivize trading activity over lending to small businesses and customers," JPMorgan's business banking chief Stevie Baron wrote in a blog last week.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, are pushing the Fed to quickly finalize the change, according to the people and the banks' comment letters, in which they likewise argue it would improve the rule's risk sensitivity.
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley executives have met with Fed officials to discuss the GSIB proposal at least four times each since March, public Fed memos show.
The four sources, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive regulatory issues, said it was unclear who will win out. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman has told banks to limit feedback, Reuters reported, and three of the people said they believe she will stick closely to the current draft, in part because she wants to wrap up the rule by year-end.