Freeport-McMoRan Reports $0.47 Q4 EPS, Expects Lower 2026 Production

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Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.47, well above analysts’ $0.28–$0.29 estimates. The company forecasts lower copper output in 2026 despite copper prices topping $6.50 per pound, suggesting tighter supply conditions would support future cash flow.

1. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Surpass Street Estimates

Freeport-McMoRan reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.47 for the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding the consensus range of $0.28 to $0.29. This result was driven by stronger-than-anticipated copper realizations and a 7% increase in production year-over-year. Consolidated revenues rose to $6.2 billion, up from $5.5 billion in the year-ago period, reflecting higher average copper prices and robust by-product credits from gold and molybdenum sales.

2. Operational Challenges and Cost Discipline

During the quarter, the company navigated maintenance shutdowns at its Grasberg complex and lower output at key U.S. mines, which trimmed production volumes by approximately 5%. Despite these disruptions, unit cash costs fell 4% sequentially to $1.75 per pound of copper sold, benefiting from ongoing cost-efficiency measures and favorable currency movements. Freeport’s operating cash flow totaled $2.1 billion, enabling debt reduction of $800 million during the period.

3. 2026 Production Guidance and Capital Allocation

Freeport-McMoRan flagged a modest production decline for full-year 2026, forecasting copper output of 4.7 to 4.9 billion pounds, down from 5.0 billion in 2025, as major projects complete expanded infrastructure. Capital expenditures are expected to be $3.5 billion, focused on sustaining projects and select brownfield expansions. The board has approved an $800 million share repurchase program to complement a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, reinforcing the company’s commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

Sources

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