Goldman Forecasts $100+ Oil, $120 Peak and Flags Q1 Cost Pressure
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude could exceed $100 per barrel in H2 if the Hormuz closure extends by one month, with scenarios of $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4. It reports Q1 deal-making and trading momentum but flags rising costs and a premium valuation that may curb investor optimism.
1. Oil Price Outlook Based on Hormuz Risk
Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude could average above $100 per barrel in the second half if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed an additional month, warning scenarios of $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4 under prolonged disruption. The firm’s base case sees Brent at $82 in Q3 and $80 in Q4 if flows resume within days, while recent volatility has driven prices from $98 to highs above $119 during the crisis.
2. Q1 Deal Activity and Cost Pressures
Ahead of its Q1 earnings release, Goldman reports robust investment banking deal fees and elevated trading revenues driven by market volatility and M&A activity. However, the firm cautions that rising operating expenses and a valuation premium relative to peers may temper investor enthusiasm and influence stock positioning until results are published.