Goldman Sachs Forecasts 50% Persian Gulf Oil Cut, Expects Recovery Months
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate Persian Gulf crude production fell by about 14.5 million barrels per day, over 50% in April, and expect recovery in several months. Brent crude topped $106 a barrel while WTI traded near $97, fueling an 18% weekly gain as Strait closures and naval blockades constrained flows.
1. Output Disruption Forecast
Goldman Sachs analysts project Persian Gulf crude output was curtailed by roughly 14.5 million barrels per day in April, representing a more than 50% decline. The note warns that full restoration could take several months, contingent on a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and no renewed military strikes.
2. Oil Market Reaction
Brent crude surged above $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovered near $97, driving an 18% weekly increase as naval blockades and intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz tightened physical supply. Traders have factored in a growing geopolitical premium as U.S. naval actions against mine-laying vessels further disrupt flows.