Goldman Sachs Raises Zegna Price Target to $14 but Downgrades to Neutral
ZGN•Goldman Sachs cut Zegna’s rating to neutral after shares surged 39% YTD and 60.3% over 12 months, raising its price target to $14 from $13.30. Its DCF implies 3% downside while a sum-of-parts analysis points to 16% upside against a €2.00 billion 2026 revenue forecast.
1. Rating Change and Price Target
Goldman Sachs moved Zegna from a buy rating to neutral, citing that its turnaround is already priced into the shares. The broker simultaneously increased its price target from $13.30 to $14, reflecting revised valuation assumptions.
2. Share Performance and Valuation
Zegna’s shares have climbed 39% year-to-date and 60.3% over the past 12 months, outperforming luxury peers and the STOXX600 by large margins. A discounted cash flow valuation suggests 3% downside, while a sum-of-parts model indicates 16% upside based on a €3.89 billion enterprise value estimate.
3. Operational Growth Drivers
Direct-to-consumer sales now account for 82% of group revenue, up from 73% in 2023. The United States share climbed to about 30% of revenue in 2025 versus 20% in 2022, while China’s contribution fell to 23% from 33%, and retail revenue rose to 84% from 33%.
4. Forecasts and Key Risks
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 revenue of €2.00 billion with adjusted EBIT of €187 million and forecasts 2027 EBIT of €239 million, below company guidance of €250–300 million. Key risks include execution at Thom Browne and Tom Ford Fashion, high-end consumer demand, and integration of the Tom Ford license.
