Goldman Warns 57% Gulf Oil Drop, Notes March Chinese Export Price Surge
GS analysts report Persian Gulf oil output is 57% below pre-war levels at 14.5 million barrels per day, with Brent futures rallied 17% this week to about $106 a barrel. The bank also highlights Chinese exporters’ March price hikes—syringes by 20% and apparel by mid-single digits—eroding disinflation.
1. Gulf Oil Supply Shortfall
GS analysts found that Persian Gulf oil output in April 2026 averaged 14.5 million barrels per day, representing a 57% decline from pre-war levels. They forecast that full restoration of supplies will take several months, given ongoing blockades and security risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Chinese Export Price Hikes
Their analysis shows that Chinese exporters raised prices on multiple goods in March, including a 20% surge in syringe costs and mid-single-digit increases in apparel and household items. These hikes mark a reversal of a three-year trend of falling export prices that had dampened global inflation.
3. Implications for Goldman Sachs
Rising oil prices and weakening disinflationary buffers present expanded trading volumes and advisory demand for Goldman Sachs, potentially boosting revenues in its commodities and macro strategies. However, sustained higher costs in consumer goods could also heighten market volatility and risk for the bank's asset management divisions.