Grail Inc. Price Targets Slashed to $80–$82 After Study Misses Endpoint
Analysts at Baird and Canaccord cut Grail Inc.’s price targets to $82 (from $113) and $80 (from $105) after its NHS-Galleri study failed to meet the primary endpoint. Grail reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $43.6 million (+14% YoY) and full-year revenue of $147.2 million (+17% YoY).
1. Clinical Study Results
Grail’s NHS-Galleri clinical study failed to meet its primary endpoint in early detection of cancer, prompting concerns over the test’s sensitivity and potential regulatory hurdles. The top-line results fell short of statistical significance, raising questions about the commercial viability of the Galleri multi-cancer screening assay.
2. Analyst Price Target Revisions
Following the study setback, Baird reduced its price target to $82 from $113 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Canaccord lowered its target to $80 from $105 but kept a Buy rating. Both firms cited disappointment in the Galleri endpoint miss yet described the post-earnings 50% share selloff as an overreaction.
3. Financial Performance for Q4 and FY2025
In fiscal Q4, Grail posted $43.6 million in revenue, up 14% year-over-year, driven largely by a 31% increase in U.S. Galleri sales to $41.3 million. For the full year 2025, total revenue rose 17% to $147.2 million, with U.S. Galleri revenue climbing 26% to $136.8 million, reflecting expanding test adoption.