High stocks, low price, but don't write lead off just yet
XLB•Lead prices are down almost 6% this year, but LME inventories have fallen from 502,600 tons at the end of March to 407,000 tons. China imported 175,000 tons of refined lead in the first nine months of the year, while Shanghai exchange warehouses held just 26,802 tons.
1. Stocks and warehouse flows
Lead has been a price underperformer, with the LME three-month contract at $1,900 per metric ton, down almost 6% since the start of January. Although the market is on track for a fourth straight year of supply surplus, total LME inventory, including off-warrant stocks, fell from 502,600 tons at the end of March to 407,000 tons.
2. Singapore trade shifts
Singapore exports of lead rose to 47,000 tons in July, August and September, from 28,000 tons in the prior three months. Refined lead imports were 49,000 tons from March through September, down from 183,000 tons in the prior six months. A 46,800-ton cancellation of LME-registered lead last week involved metal being moved between warehouse operators in Singapore.
3. China imports more lead
China imported 175,000 tons of refined lead in the first nine months of the year, up from 24,000 tons in the same period of 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses held 26,802 tons, the lowest level since August 2024, while the Shanghai lead contract was in backwardation. Data centers account for around 8% of lead demand, Trafigura’s head of analysis said at an LME seminar.
