HSBC Cuts Eli Lilly Price Target to $850, Projects $80–120B Obesity Market Revenue
HSBC downgraded Eli Lilly from Hold to Reduce and cut its price target to $850—the lowest on Wall Street—after shares dropped 10% this year following a four-year rally to a trillion-dollar valuation. The bank predicts global obesity-drug revenue of $80–120 billion by 2032 versus $150 billion consensus and flags orforglipron’s $1.5 billion-2026 risk.
1. HSBC Downgrades Rating and Lowers Price Target
HSBC moved Eli Lilly from a Hold to a Reduce rating and cut its price target to $850, marking the lowest Street estimate, after shares fell 10% this year following a four-year rally that tripled its market value to over $1 trillion.
2. Revised Obesity Drug Market Projections
The firm now forecasts global obesity-drug sales of $80–120 billion by 2032, down from consensus expectations exceeding $150 billion, citing intensifying pricing competition—particularly against Novo Nordisk—that could erode industry profitability.
3. Orforglipron Execution and Revenue Risks
HSBC flagged risks for Lilly’s experimental oral obesity treatment orforglipron, warning that projected revenue of $1.5 billion in 2026 may be challenging if patient adherence and market uptake fail to meet expectations.