iPhone Shipments to China Soar 28%, Share Climbs to 21.8%

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Apple’s iPhone shipments to China surged 28% in the holiday quarter, lifting its market share to 21.8% from 16.8% year-over-year. Wall Street forecasts a 17.04% average share-price gain to $299.06 in 2026, with Wedbush and Evercore setting targets at $350 and $330, though memory-supply risks could curb growth.

1. Google Gemini to Power Next-Gen Siri

Apple and Alphabet have agreed that Google’s Gemini large language model will become the foundational AI engine for Siri later this year. While financial terms were not disclosed, industry reports suggest the multi-year cloud services agreement could be worth more than $2 billion to Alphabet. By integrating Gemini’s advanced natural-language understanding into Siri, Apple aims to boost query accuracy by at least 30 percent versus its current in-house models and process an estimated 5 billion additional Siri requests per month on Google Cloud infrastructure.

2. Analyst Upgrade Fails to Halt Stock Slide

Despite Evercore and Citi issuing buy recommendations and raising Apple’s 12-month target prices by an average 15 percent ahead of the January 29 earnings release, the stock fell nearly 3 percent on the upgrade day. Market commentators attribute the drop to broader risk-off sentiment, as investors rotated out of large-cap tech names following renewed tariff rhetoric affecting supply chains. Trading volume on the down-day exceeded the 30-day average by 40 percent, underscoring investor caution despite bullish earnings forecasts.

3. iPhone Share Surges in China

Data from Counterpoint Research shows Apple’s smartphone shipments to China jumped by 28 percent in Q4 2025, lifting its market share to 21.8 percent and overtaking Samsung for the first time in two years. That translated into roughly 22 million iPhones shipped in the quarter and contributed to 18 percent year-over-year revenue growth in Greater China. Wall Street consensus now forecasts China sales will account for more than 20 percent of Apple’s total revenue in fiscal 2026, up from 17 percent in the prior year.

Sources

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