Freeport-McMoRan shares have climbed 30% over the past three months, driven by record-high copper prices, concerns over constrained global mine supply and accelerating consumption in China and Europe. The miner’s flagship Grasberg operation in Indonesia has maintained near-capacity throughput even as other major producers report output curbs, reinforcing investor confidence. Industry data show global refined copper inventories falling by 15% year-to-date, underscoring market tightness that has buoyed Freeport’s valuation.

In its third quarter report, Freeport disclosed a 24% increase in unit cash costs, primarily due to lower ore grades and higher energy and labor expenses at its North American operations. Copper volumes declined by 5% sequentially, driving cash costs to their highest level in two years. Management flagged an even steeper cost increase for the fourth quarter, citing planned shutdowns for equipment maintenance and inflationary pressure on fuel and consumables.

Jefferies analysts project Freeport’s fourth-quarter earnings per share to beat consensus, based on realized copper and gold prices that outpaced internal forecasts. However, a delayed ramp-up at Grasberg—now expected to reach design capacity in mid-next year rather than year-end—will temper volume growth. The brokerage firm has updated its model to reflect lower tonnage but still anticipates a 10% jump in free cash flow year-over-year, driven by robust margins and disciplined capital allocation.