J.P. Morgan Asset Management forecasts 7.0% annual return for 60/40 portfolio over 10-15 years
JPM•J.P. Morgan Asset Management projects 7% annual returns for a U.S. dollar 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over 10-15 years. Adding 30% diversified alternatives raises the forecast to 7.5%, with a 21% improvement in the Sharpe ratio.
1. Portfolio return outlook
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 outlook projects 7% annual returns for a U.S. dollar 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over 10-15 years. Allocating 30% to diversified alternatives raises projected returns to 7.5% and the Sharpe ratio by 21% versus the 60/40 portfolio. U.S. large-cap equity return forecasts rose 80 basis points to 7.5%, while global aggregate bond forecasts increased to 5.3%, the highest in two decades. Diversified hedge fund forecasts rose to 6.7% from 5.3%; developed-market projections overtook emerging markets.
