JPMorgan Flags 10% S&P 500 Drop Risk as Oil Tops $120
JPMorgan strategist Andrew Tyler has turned tactically bearish and warned that the Iran war and oil topping $120 per barrel could trigger a 10% S&P 500 drop to about 6,270. Last week WTI crude rose 35%, VIX reached 31.45 and the Russell 2000 entered correction territory.
1. JPMorgan’s Bearish Stance
Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan, shifted to a tactically bearish position, cautioning that a prolonged Iran war could push the S&P 500 down by around 10% to 6,270.
2. Oil Surge Stokes Risk
West Texas Intermediate crude surged 35% last week to over $120 per barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faced pressure, raising inflation and cost concerns for companies and consumers.
3. Rising Market Volatility
U.S. stock futures fell, the VIX climbed to 31.45 and the Russell 2000 slipped into correction territory, reflecting growing investor unease about geopolitical escalation and its economic fallout.
4. Shifting Internal Forecasts
Earlier this month, JPMorgan analysts viewed major geopolitical shocks as 5%–6% drawdowns with quick recoveries, but recent commentary warns that conditions may worsen before stabilizing over days or weeks.