JPMorgan Forecasts $104.5B NII, $19.8B Tech Spend and Mid-Teens IB Fee Growth
JPMorgan projects total net interest income of $104.5 billion for 2026, up from $103 billion, and core NII of $95 billion driven by lending and deposit growth. Management plans $105 billion in adjusted expenses, including a 10% increase to $19.8 billion in technology and AI investments.
1. Investor Presentation Highlights
JPMorgan’s Feb. 23 investor update outlined a cautiously optimistic 2026 outlook, projecting moderate earnings expansion across its core banking franchise despite macroeconomic headwinds. Management emphasized sustained investments in technology and AI alongside disciplined profitability targets.
2. Net Interest Income Forecast
The bank expects total net interest income of $104.5 billion in 2026, up from the prior $103 billion estimate, with core NII of $95 billion driven by a modest uptick in lending and deposit-related activities. Retail deposits are anticipated to resume growth, and card lending should expand.
3. Expense Guidance and Technology Investment
JPMorgan reaffirmed adjusted expenses of $105 billion for 2026, a 9.4% year-over-year increase that includes $19.8 billion in technology outlays, 10% more than in 2025. Spending will support branch upgrades, hiring, tech enhancements and AI-driven productivity initiatives.
4. IB Fees, Trading Outlook and Profitability Goals
Amid persistent equity market volatility, JPMorgan forecasts investment banking fees to rise in the mid-teens percentage in Q1 and markets revenues to grow similarly on elevated trading volumes. The bank maintained its through-the-cycle ROTCE target of 17%, underscoring confidence in disciplined profitability.