JPMorgan Forecasts H2 2026 Consumer Stocks Rebound on 25% Oil Drop
JPM•JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka highlights that consumer cyclicals have sharply lagged and now trade near multi-year relative lows after missing the post-pandemic rally. The bank sees H2 2026 recovery driven by a 25% drop in Brent crude, lower tariffs and midterm fiscal support favoring luxury, travel, retail and leisure stocks.
1. Consumer Cyclicals Underperformance
Consumer cyclicals have lagged banks, industrials and tech since the post-pandemic rebound, leaving valuations near multi-year relative lows after missing this year's rally.
2. Valuations and Sentiment at Multi-Year Lows
Many consumer stocks trade at undemanding valuation metrics compared with the broader market while consumer confidence remains close to historic lows, a combination that historically precedes stronger sector performance.
3. Key Rebound Catalysts Identified
A roughly 25% decline in Brent crude this quarter is expected to ease household energy costs, while lower tariff rates and potential midterm fiscal measures could bolster disposable income and consumer spending.
4. Top Sector Picks for H2 2026
JPMorgan sees the most attractive opportunities in luxury goods, airlines, hotels, travel and leisure, and retail stocks as consumer sentiment and spending recover in the second half of 2026.
