JPMorgan Q4 Adjusted EPS Beats, Trading Revenue Up 17%, NII Guidance $103B
JPMorgan’s Q4 adjusted net income was $14.7 billion ($5.23/share) versus $4.92 estimates and GAAP net income fell 7% to $13 billion after a $2.2 billion reserve. Revenue was $46.77 billion, trading revenue rose 17% to $8.2 billion, IB fees fell 2%, and 2026 NII guidance is $103 billion.
1. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Exceed Estimates but Shares Retreat
JPMorgan reported adjusted net income of $14.7 billion for the quarter ended December, or $5.23 per share, topping consensus estimates of $4.92 per share. Including a $2.2 billion credit reserve tied to its Apple card acquisition, GAAP net income declined 7% year-over-year to $13.0 billion, or $4.63 per share. Total revenue reached $46.77 billion, modestly above the Bloomberg consensus of $46.35 billion. Despite the earnings beat, the stock fell over 2% intraday as investors weighed uneven segment performance.
2. Trading and Markets Businesses Drive Revenue Growth
Markets revenue surged 17% year-over-year to $8.2 billion, led by strong fixed-income and equities trading results. Within fixed income, credit trading volumes rose 12% sequentially, while foreign exchange trading grew 9%, reflecting heightened client activity in volatility strategies. Equities trading revenue increased 18% from a year earlier, driven by record cash equity volumes in December and robust flow of algorithmic trading orders.
3. Investment Banking Fees Disappoint
Investment banking revenue fell 2% sequentially to $2.6 billion, below the midpoint of analyst forecasts, as fee income from M&A advisory and equity underwriting softened. Advisory fees totaled $1.4 billion, down 6% from the prior quarter, and debt underwriting fees were $950 million, 4% below levels in Q3. For the full year, banking fees of $10.8 billion represented a 5% decline from 2024, reflecting a slower deal pipeline and tighter corporate budgets.
4. 2026 Guidance and Risk Factors Highlighted
Management projected fiscal 2026 net interest income of approximately $103 billion, above external forecasts near $100.4 billion, on expectations of stable loan growth and a modestly steeper yield curve. CEO Jamie Dimon cited resilient consumer spending and healthy business activity but cautioned about underappreciated hazards, including complex geopolitical conditions, potential sticky inflation and elevated asset valuations. He also noted that expanding fiscal deficits in the U.S. and globally could pressure future borrowing costs and weigh on long-term growth.