JPMorgan Raises Tech Buyback Forecast to $900 Billion on Strong Cash Flows
JPMorgan strategists project 25% tech cash flow growth versus 20% capex growth this year, driving a financing surplus that underpins $900 billion in buybacks and dividends in 2026. The surplus is expected to narrow but stay positive through 2030, as net bond issuance climbs past $600 billion annually.
1. Cash Flow vs. Capex Growth
A JPMorgan team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates the tech sector will deliver about 25% cash flow growth this year against roughly 20% capital expenditure growth, creating a financing surplus as cash generation outpaces investment spending.
2. Elevated Buybacks and Dividends
Stronger cash flows have allowed the sector to boost shareholder returns, prompting JPMorgan to lift its forecast for buybacks and dividends to $900 billion in 2026, up from $700 billion in 2025 despite high AI infrastructure costs.
3. Long-Term Surplus and Bond Issuance
While the bank now expects capex growth to edge up to 25% against 20% cash flow growth over the long term, the financing surplus should remain positive through 2030. To support ongoing investment, net bond issuance is projected to rise from just over $200 billion this year to more than $600 billion annually by 2030.