Kevin Warsh Hearing May Push 10-Year Treasury Yields Near 4.25%
US 10-year Treasury yields have stabilized just under 4.25% following a ceasefire and oil price decline, with two-year yields dipping to around 3.72%. Markets are focused on Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Fed confirmation hearing for clues on rate-cut timing, while JPMorgan Asset Management has increased holdings in longer-dated, inflation-sensitive bonds.
1. Treasury Yield Stabilization
US 10-year Treasury yields have drifted just under 4.25% after a ceasefire and easing oil prices, while two-year yields fell below the current fed funds rate to about 3.72%. Volatility measures have returned to near pre-conflict levels.
2. Fed Confirmation Hearing as Catalyst
Investors are eyeing Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing for indications of his bias on rate cuts or hikes, with swaps pricing roughly 50% odds of a policy change by year-end based on his testimony.
3. JPMorgan Asset Management Strategy
JPMorgan Asset Management has been adding longer-dated securities that are sensitive to inflation, capitalizing on the rally in Treasuries driven by energy price retreat and dovish rate-cut bets.