KinderCare Learning Guides 2026 EBITDA $210–$230M, Shares Plunge 32%
Shares of KinderCare Learning fell 32% in premarket trading after the company guided for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $210–$230 million, well below consensus near $290 million. Enrollment declined 3.6% year over year and management projects an 8% EBITDA margin midpoint, down from roughly 11% in recent years.
1. 2026 Guidance Miss
KinderCare guided for $210 million to $230 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026, versus consensus near $290 million, implying an 8% midpoint margin down from roughly 11% previously.
2. Stock Reaction and Downgrades
Shares plunged 32% in premarket trading after the guidance, prompting Baird to cut its rating to Neutral with a $1.50 price target and Morgan Stanley to Underweight with a $2.50 target.
3. Enrollment Trends and Leverage Outlook
Enrollment dropped 3.6% year over year, and declining profitability could push net leverage to approximately 3.5x–3.8x in 2026 as fixed costs weigh on margins.
4. Fourth-Quarter Performance
Q4 revenue reached $688 million, slightly above consensus of $685 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $68 million versus estimates near $62 million, but underlying operating trends remain challenged.