Lighthouse Canton says Middle East ceasefire breakdown keeps energy trade “still working” as Brent holds above USD 90/bbl
XLE•Rates shock deepened while the note adjusted positioning
Rates shock deepened: 10-year US Treasury yield moved above 4.79%; 30-year reached 5.27%; fed funds imply 66% hike odds.
It trimmed tanker shipping into strength; it maintained defense exposure; it reduced ITM TLT puts, shifting them to protection.
Ceasefire breakdown and renewed conflict keep energy trade supported
Lighthouse Canton flagged a breakdown in the April 8 ceasefire, citing resumed conflict and renewed pressure across key market transmission channels.
US reimposed a naval blockade in early August; Sept. 1 marked a sixth day of US strikes, followed by a multi-front Iranian response.
Brent held above USD 90/bbl; the note kept a long stance in energy and fertilizers, framing a prolonged impasse as supportive.
