Memory Crunch Drives 176% DRAM Price Surge; Micron Neutral on HBM Share
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 4.9% DRAM undersupply in 2026 and anticipates a 176% year-over-year DRAM price surge with operating margins of 70-80%. Micron was held at Neutral but could capture about 20% of the high-bandwidth memory market as industry supply remains disciplined.
1. Tightening Memory Supply
Goldman forecasts a 4.9% DRAM undersupply and 4.2% NAND shortfall in 2026, marking the most severe supply/demand gap in over 15 years as server and enterprise storage demand accelerates.
2. Forecast Price and Margin Gains
DRAM average selling prices are projected to jump 176% year-over-year in 2026 with operating margins of 70-80%, while NAND prices could rise 100-120% with margins above 40%.
3. Micron’s Neutral Outlook and HBM Opportunity
Micron retained a Neutral rating, yet is expected to secure roughly 20% of the high-bandwidth memory segment, contingent on continued industry supply discipline into 2027.