Meta Shares Slide 10% Despite 24% Revenue Growth and 30% Q1 Guidance

METAMETA

Meta Platforms shares have fallen about 10% since Q4 results, erasing post-earnings gains despite 24% year-over-year revenue growth and guidance for 30% Q1 growth. Heavy AI investments are pressuring margins and earnings growth, and the stock trades at a P/E of 28, reflecting skepticism over Meta’s AI strategy.

1. Recent Share Price Weakness

Meta Platforms’ share price has fallen by approximately 10% over the past week, erasing all gains recorded following its Q4 earnings release. This sell-off follows a period in which investor optimism had driven the stock higher on the back of robust revenue growth and aggressive AI spending plans. The correction brings the stock’s forward P/E multiple down to around 28, a level last seen during market-wide tech pullbacks earlier this year.

2. Q4 Revenue Growth and Q1 Guidance

In its Q4 results, Meta reported year-over-year revenue growth of 24%, driven by continued strength in ad sales across Facebook, Instagram and Reels. Total quarterly revenue approached $60 billion, topping consensus estimates by a notable margin. Management then set a Q1 revenue growth target of 30% year-over-year, implying further acceleration in advertising demand and higher monetization of short-form video content.

3. Impact of AI Capital Expenditures

Meta’s heavy investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has weighed on operating margins for two consecutive quarters. Capital expenditures related to data-center build-out and AI compute capacity exceeded $14 billion in Q4, contributing to a modest decline in adjusted operating margin to the low-30% range. CFO commentary highlighted that this capex cycle is expected to peak throughout calendar 2026 before tapering off in subsequent years.

4. Analyst Views and Risk Considerations

Analysts remain divided on Meta’s risk-reward profile. Several firms have maintained Buy or Outperform ratings, citing the company’s dominant social-media ecosystem and long-term AI thesis. However, caution flags include execution risk around new AI products, potential regulatory scrutiny of content algorithms and the high bar set by current valuation levels. Long-term investors may view the recent pullback as an attractive entry point, provided they are comfortable with short-term volatility tied to capex intensity and competitive pressures.

Sources

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