Micron Sells Out 2026 HBM Supply, Commits $200B to US Fab Expansion

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Micron sold out its 2026 high-bandwidth memory supply by end-2025 and pledged over $200 billion to expand US fabrication with new Idaho and New York fabs. HSBC lifted its price target to $500, forecasting a 45% quarter-over-quarter rise in DRAM prices and projecting fiscal Q2 operating profit of $12 billion.

1. Record Q1 FY2026 Revenue and Sold-Out HBM Inventory

Micron reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $13.64 billion, representing a 56.7% year-over-year increase and marking its highest quarterly sales on record. The company attributed this surge to unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data-center accelerators. In December, Micron announced that its entire HBM inventory for calendar 2026 was fully contracted, reflecting both the intensity of customer commitments and the tightness of supply in the memory market.

2. Aggressive Capacity Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions

To address ongoing supply constraints, Micron has committed over $200 billion to expand domestic manufacturing capacity through the end of the decade. Its plans include a multi-phase enlargement of its Virginia fab, construction of two new facilities in Idaho and New York, and the proposed $1.8 billion purchase of a Taiwanese fabrication site. These investments are designed to boost DRAM and HBM output, shorten lead times for major cloud and AI customers and position Micron to capture a rising share of global memory production.

3. Robust Earnings Outlook and Attractive Valuation

Consensus forecasts project Micron’s annual earnings per share to jump by nearly 300% in fiscal 2026—reaching approximately $32.67—driven by strong pricing dynamics and continued capacity shortages. Analysts expect further growth into fiscal 2027 as data-center, smartphone and automotive OEMs secure memory allocation ahead of demand increases. Despite recent gains, Micron trades at roughly 11 times forward earnings, a steep discount to the broader technology sector multiple of 25×. Institutional ownership exceeds 80%, and the consensus analyst rating remains a ‘Buy’ with average price targets clustered in the mid-$300 range, underscoring investor confidence in Micron’s long-term AI-driven growth story.

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