Moderna Forecasts $1.9B Sales for 2025 and Sees 10% Growth in 2026
Moderna expects 2025 sales of around $1.9 billion, near the upper end of its $1.6–$2 billion guidance range. It also trimmed cost forecasts and reiterated objectives for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, signaling stronger profit potential next year.
1. 2025 Sales Outlook Surpasses Midpoint of Guidance
Moderna expects to report approximately $1.9 billion in sales for 2025, positioning it above the midpoint of its prior $1.6 billion to $2 billion revenue guidance range. This projection reflects demand stability for its established vaccine portfolio and early uptake of its updated mRNA formulations. The company’s reaffirmed forecast suggests sequential growth from the $1.75 billion achieved in the previous year, representing an 8.6% increase at the midpoint and underscoring management’s confidence in maintaining commercial momentum post–pandemic peak levels.
2. Cost Reduction Measures Trim Expense Forecast
In tandem with its top-line guidance, Moderna has trimmed its operating expense outlook for 2025 by approximately $150 million, citing efficiencies in manufacturing scale-up and streamlined clinical trial programs. The revised cost forecast now anticipates research and development expenses in the range of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion, down from an initial $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. These adjustments are driven by the completion of several late-stage studies and improved raw-material procurement terms, which together are projected to enhance operating margin by up to 300 basis points versus prior estimates.
3. Reiterated Revenue Growth Target for 2026
Looking ahead, Moderna reaffirmed its expectation for full-year 2026 revenue to grow by as much as 10% over the anticipated 2025 sales figure. This guidance is underpinned by planned launches of next-generation mRNA vaccines targeting influenza and cytomegalovirus, as well as incremental royalties from partnered oncology and rare-disease programs. Management emphasized that pipeline advancements—currently including six vaccine candidates in Phase III development—would drive the firm’s long-term top-line expansion beyond the 2026 horizon.