Molina Healthcare Q4 Loss of $2.75 Sends Shares Sliding Over 30%
Molina Healthcare reported an adjusted Q4 loss of $2.75 per share versus expectations of a $0.34 profit, driven by $2.00 per share in unfavorable California retroactive revenue adjustments and rising medical costs. The stock plunged over 30% to a 52-week low of $121.06, down 24.16% year-to-date and collapsing its momentum score from 14.04 to 5.72.
1. Surprise Q4 Loss and Stock Plunge
Molina reported an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share in Q4, missing the $0.34 profit forecast, due to $2.00 per share in retroactive revenue adjustments in California and higher medical costs. Shares plunged more than 30% in a single session to a 52-week low of $121.06 and have fallen 24.16% year-to-date.
2. Technical Indicators and Momentum Collapse
The earnings shock drove Molina’s momentum ranking down from 14.04 to 5.72, reflecting weakness in long-, medium- and short-term price trends despite a strong value score. The stock is down 19.98% over six months and 49.60% over a year, with only marginal premarket gains.
3. Michael Burry’s Contrarian Bet
Michael Burry’s “peanut butter and bananas” long position in Molina is now roughly 27% underwater but he insists the market reaction is overly severe. He continues to compare Molina’s Medicaid-focused model to an early-stage insurer and remains confident in its long-term growth potential.
4. 2026 Outlook and Margin Trough
CEO Joseph Zubretsky labeled 2026 a “trough year” for margins, guiding adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 as the company transitions away from traditional Medicare Advantage products. Management expects margins to recover in future years as cost pressures ease and revenue stabilizes.